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Al-Tabtabai, H and Diekmann, J E (1992) Judgemental forecasting in construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 19-30.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: cost control; forecasting; project management; social judgement theory
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199200000003
  • Abstract:

    Forecasting is a very important strategic task within the project control framework. Forecast activity seeks to answer one of project management’s prime management’s prime questions: ’When will the project be completed and what will it cost?’ Large variances in costs or schedules will impact the profitability, cash-flow and, in extreme cases, the viability of projects. This paper discuses a new approach to forecasting within the context of project control. The paper concerns itself with the situation wherein a project manager has observed a variance from a project goal (a wage rate, for example) and the manager must now predict (i.e. forecast) the final actual wage rate of the project. Forecasting is a difficult task because task one must understand the effect of past performance and the impact of future events. A good forecasting technique, therefore, needs to include both historical trend-based data and competent judgments based on construction experience and knowledge. This research was conducted to develop an alternative approach to forecasting which would use both historical data and human judgement in a formal forecasting model. This paper describes the adaptation of social judgement in a formal forecasting model. This paper describes the adaption of Social Judgement Theory to forecasting for construction project control.

Finch, E F (1992) Environmental assessment of construction projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 5-18.

Kapliński, O and Meszek, W (1992) Catastrophic and strategic aspects of building processes balancing. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 81-8.

Laufer, A (1992) A micro view of the project planning process. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 31-43.

Ranasinghe, M and Russell, A D (1992) Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects: validation. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 45-68.

Yizhe, T and Youjie, L (1992) Unbalanced bidding on contracts with variation trends in client-provided quantities. Construction Management and Economics, 10(01), 69-80.